Brooks and Capehart on key moments in the 2024 race in the final weeks before Election Day

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• Amna Nawaz:

  This week saw the death of Hamas' leader, which could mark a turning point in the war in Gaza. And there were key moments in the presidential race with less than three weeks to go before Election Day.

  For all of that and more, we turn to the analysis of Brooks and Capehart. That is New York Times columnist David Brooks and Jonathan Capehart, associate editor for The Washington Post.

  Great to see you both.

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Hey, Amna.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Let's start overseas, because, David, as you know, the killing of Yahya Sinwar in Gaza, President Biden, Vice President Harris have said, offers an opportunity for potential for peace in the region. Even former President Trump said that today.

  But Prime Minister Netanyahu has basically said, he knows the war is not yet over. You study this and follow this closely. What do you see happening now?

• David Brooks:

  Yes, I'm no big fan of Bibi Netanyahu, but I have to admit, over the last month, he's gone against world opinion and American opinion on a whole range of issues, and he's been absolutely right.

  They have seriously weakened Hezbollah. They have now seriously taken out the leadership, now almost the complete leadership of Hamas. So these are two Iranian-backed terrorists. And sometimes, in war, you have to defeat your enemies. So he's made them weaker. Obviously, there's still going to be Hamas. There's still going to be a very powerful Hezbollah.

  But he's made his enemies weaker. And in my view, that's served world peace. Now, is this a moment for him to turn the corner and now say, OK, we won? I have some sympathy with that view, but I confess, unless you have access to Israeli intelligence and know how much of Hamas is still there, I don't think we can know that. And, frankly, I'm not — I don't think any Americans could know that.

  And I don't like trusting Bibi Netanyahu, but he's been making some right calls over the last month.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Jonathan, how are you looking at it, and specifically this piece of how much influence the U.S. and American leaders have or don't have over any of this?

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Well, for me, that's been the frustrating part, that it seems as though, yes, the United States and Israel are super close allies, but it seems to me that the personal relationship, such as it is, between the president of the United States, between President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu, sometimes, I wonder if that dynamic, that complicated, negative dynamic, is playing into, in some cases, some obstinacy on the part of Prime Minister Netanyahu.

  And I take your point that we don't have the intelligence that the Israelis have, but, at some point, this has to end. It has to end. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza is extraordinary. I saw in one of the bumper shots, it was at 495,000 people in Gaza are facing a humanitarian catastrophe.

  And I'm still waiting to hear from somebody within the Israeli government, but what happens when they do win the war? What is the plan? We don't know what the plan is.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Do you think it impacts the U.S. election at all, the fact that this war will likely continue?

• Jonathan Capehart:

  I think yes and no, no, because, broadly speaking, Americans don't really care that much about foreign policy, yes, because the people in Michigan really do care about this issue.

• Amna Nawaz:

  David, do you agree with that?

• David Brooks:

  Yes, I more or less agree with that.

  I should say the world is sort of gathering around Bibi right now to try to — the Saudi to try to get him to do — get to some sort of two-state solution-type approach. And at that point, he just becomes a total obstacle to peace. And at that point, America really has to hit him hard, I think.

  But as for the election, when the encampments were going on campus, there was a survey of college-educated — or college-age people. Where do you put the Middle East on your list of concerns? And it was 14 out of 50.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Yes.

• David Brooks:

  So I agree with Jonathan on the political impact, which is not big.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Well, let's turn to a closer look at that 2024 race, now 18 days to go until Election Day, or the last day of voting, as I like to call it.

  And we have seen the candidates really kind of focus in on cutting into each other's margins with very specific voter groups. We saw Vice President Harris sit down for her first interview on FOX. She also rallied with a number of Republicans behind her in Pennsylvania. We saw former President Trump hold an all-women town hall, the first time he's done that.

  Jonathan, what does all of this tell you about the state of the race right now and also how the candidates performed in those venues?

• Jonathan Capehart:

  We don't have enough time for me to answer that, your question, Amna.

  Look, we are in the last 18 days. In some instances, they're both talking to their bases and trying to get them to turn out. In other cases, and I think in the case of the vice president, particularly going into the lion's den, going to FOX, it wasn't about convincing the FOX audience, the die-hard audience, the die-hard MAGA audience to vote for her.

  It was more talking to the Nikki Haley voters, to those Republican voters or those viewers of FOX News for whom Trump is just a nonstarter, but they're not convinced about her because they have heard that she's dumb, she's not prepared, all the insults that Donald Trump has hurled at her.

  And in that interview with Bret Baier, she showed, she's not dumb, she's not stupid, she's prepared, and she's not going to let someone talk over her, put words in her mouth, or mischaracterize anything she's done as vice president or what she would do as president.

  As for the all-women town hall that President Donald Trump did, I watched all of it. And it was a rah-rah rally. There was even a woman in the audience wearing an RNC delegate hat, which she took off halfway through.

  And Donald Trump wasn't terribly serious. He did not say anything differently in that town hall that he hasn't said on — at any rally that he's done before or since.

• Amna Nawaz:

  David, what's your take on that?

• David Brooks:

  First, I'd like the confrontation interviews, the Harris going to FOX and Donald Trump talking to Bloomberg. Those were more fun and engaging than we get to hear most of the time.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Yes.

• David Brooks:

  I think my frustration — and they're trying to appeal to demographics, which is how consultants think, but they should probably think the way politicians should think, that, how do I widen my coalition?

  And so what frustrates me about our politics over the last 10 years, it's been 50/50 for 10 years.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Yes.

• David Brooks:

  That's not normal. Usually, there's a majority party, the Democrats are during the New Deal, the Republicans during Reagan, and there's a minority party.

  Some party figures out a way to expand their coalition. Our two parties don't seem particularly interested in that. Donald Trump only plays to the same MAGA resentments over and over and over again. Kamala Harris is running basically on your standard orthodox Democratic policy platform with very few policy surprises.

  And so, of course they're playing to their 50 percent, but they're not going to get to 55 percent or 53 percent or even 51 percent. And so what frustrates me is the parties' incuriosity about how do we expand and become the majority party, which should be their goal.

• Jonathan Capehart:

  I disagree with that, because I think that there are people in the Democratic camp and certainly on the progressive side who are quietly and not so quietly complaining that she's spending way too much time seeking Republican votes and talking to Republicans.

  That's expanding the tent.

• David Brooks:

  Without new policies. You have got to have policies.

• Jonathan Capehart:

  She's out there hammering away at the bipartisan immigration deal in the Senate…

• David Brooks:

  That's fair.

• Jonathan Capehart:

  … that Congressman — Senator Lankford negotiated and that Donald Trump killed, a bill so tough that there were Democrats who were working really hard to scuttle it before Donald Trump handed them a gift.

• David Brooks:

  That's a fair point. So, on that issue, she has gone to the center.

  (Crosstalk)

• Amna Nawaz:

  And to the degree this is going to come down to a small number of votes in a handful of states, we know it's going to be won on the margins, right, unless anything dramatically changes.

  This other issue of the gender gap that we have seen, just a huge gender gap, with a huge male advantage for former President Trump and a huge female advantage for Vice President Harris. And I just have to say, I'm asking all the smart men in my life this question.

  (Laughter)

• Amna Nawaz:

  Because Harris continues to have weaker support with younger men, men who supported President Biden. And I just wonder why you think that is. Why do men have a problem supporting her?

  David?

• David Brooks:

  Yes, well, young men have been drifting away from the Democratic Party for a long time. And that's especially accelerating. And I don't want to downplay the role that sexism may play here.

  But young men are — have lower graduation rates, lower grades, lower work force participation rates, higher unemployment. Young men have been suffering and struggling over the last 10 years in an accelerating form. And so, if you're alienated, Trump is sort of your meal ticket.

  And if you're alienated, well, the number one predictor of whether a young guy is going to go Democrat or Republican is this question, do you like Joe Rogan? And so there's a podcast industry serving these young guys. And it tends to be pretty conservative industries, ramping all the way to the insane Andrew Tate.

  And so I think they're alienated because of what's happened to young men recently. There's this nutrition system that's feeding them some reinforcement, and it's pretty conservative.

• Jonathan Capehart:

  That Trump meal ticket is junk food.

  And I agree with you. I take everything that you say. I see all of what you're saying. But I also see what former President Obama was saying in that campaign office in Pennsyl — yes, in Pennsylvania, when he was talking specifically to African American men.

  But when you watch the whole clip, he also mentions Latino men, white men, Asian men, that this is a bigger — this is a bigger issue, this concern — and not to downplay the role sexism plays into this. I do think it's part of it. And we can't just ignore it. We have to talk about it.

  So, all those people who were tut-tutting President Obama for saying what he said, I applaud him for saying what he said, because we need — we have to talk about it. Otherwise, we will never — we will never overcome it.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Thirty seconds, left, Jonathan. Do you see that gender gap closing in these final 18 days before the election?

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Nah.

• Amna Nawaz:

  No. It's going to remain where it is.

  You agree with that, David?

• David Brooks:

  It's been like a 16-year trend, so yes.

• Amna Nawaz:

  It's been a defining feature of this cycle too.

  Gentlemen, always great to have you here at the table. Jonathan Capehart, David Brooks, good to see you both.

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Thanks.

• David Brooks:

  Thank you.